Using Soccer to Explain Country Risk Mapping

Not to be outdone by Goldman Sachs’ AI-generated World Cup predictions (spoiler alert: Goldman Sachs predicts that Brazil will win), the Sigma Ratings team decided to look at potential World Cup outcomes using Sigma Ratings’ proprietary global risk model to decide winners game-by-game.  

Who cares?  Well, for starters, roughly half the world will watch the World Cup this year. 

The other reason this matters, is to highlight the importance of a good country risk model. At Sigma Ratings, we created a risk index that is dynamic and that looks at political, money laundering, terrorism, sanctions, corruption, credit default and relationship risks country-by-country. 

So, based on our model, who doesn’t win? Surprise, but the host country doesn’t win (though they are next to last, only surpassed by Iran).  Neither do the usual suspects.  But in a World Cup that has 32 countries ranging from Latin America, Africa, Europe, the Middle East and Asia, who does?

In a close tournament of “least risky countries”, Denmark advances through the knock out rounds, ultimately edging out Sweden in the finals.  See the full results below.


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